So I just finished the book. I loved the parallels and foreshadowing and what have you. I knew next to nothing about Lucy Gray before reading and still feel like I know very little.
So her name comes from the ballad of the same name and the what happens to the girl up to debate on whether she’s gone or just simply dead.
I heard the theories that Lucy may be related to Coin or (what I think is a little dumb) is Coin herself. I think for the most part that should be ruled out, as Suzanne Collins helped to make this movie too and if Lucy was Coin I think they would have chosen a white girl since Coin is white (I’ve only watched the movies so I’m not sure if she’s described differently).
I also saw a theory that Lucy Gray drowned but to me that honestly makes no sense because Snow went into the lake to get rid of the evidence from his crime. If she was in the water he would have seen her, plus I think she would have been to far to make it to the lake since it seems to be implied that Snow was able to hit her.
Lucy Gray was the victor of the 10th hunger games and even without Snow’s help I think she could have made it to at least the final 5. She’s smart. So I don’t think she died, at least not until some time after Snow left the woods.
Though this bit of text does make me think she may have died to her injury by Snow:
“If he’d felt better, he’d have laughed at the irony of how quickly their relationship had deteriorated into their own private Hunger Games.”
by lamebitchjames
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It’s left intentionally vague so I don’t KNOW. I think that she was killed. I think she was too well known a personality/too family oriented to have stayed in hiding on her own. If she was alive and met up with the Covey, anyone who knew her from the Games or the local performances she did would have given her up, even if accidentally. The Capitol took pains to try erase any record of her, I’m sure they would have kept an eye out for any further signs of life. I think she never made it to full adulthood so no ancestry links to anyone from the initial trilogy.